Publications – Agricultural Impacts Research Group

Peer-reviewed journal articles

Baumert, J., T. Heckelei, L. Estes, and H. Storm. (2026) Fusing generative AI and economic modelling to estimate field-level crop production in data-scarce world regions. Paper presented at the 100th Annual Conference of the Agricultural Economics Society, March 23–25, 2026, Wadham College, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Xiong, S., P. Hadunka, B. Mulenga, K. Baylis, P. Rufin, and L. Estes. (2026) Is field size an indicator of farm size in smallholder-dominated croplands? Environmental Research: Food Systems 3:015008.
Song, L., A. E. Frazier, C. L. Crawford, A. B. Estes, and L. D. Estes. (2025) Optimizing future cropland allocation in a biodiverse savanna by integrating agricultural benefits and ecological costs. Landscape Ecology 40:1–18.
Song, L., A.E. Frazier, A.B, Estes, and Estes, L.D. (2025) A multi-scale approach for integrating species distribution models with landscape connectivity to identify critical linkage zones for African savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana). Ecological Modelling, 507, 111198.
Rufin, P., P. Meyfroidt, F. O. Akinyemi, L. Estes, E. S. Ibrahim, M. Jain, H. Kerner, S. N. Lisboa, D. Lobell, C. Nakalembe, C. Persello, M. C. A. Picoli, N. Ribeiro, A. A. Sitoe, K. Waha, and S. Wang. (2025) To enhance sustainable development goal research, open up commercial satellite image archives. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 122:e2410246122.
Khallaghi, S., R. Abedi, H. Abou Ali, H. Alemohammad, M. Dziedzorm Asipunu, I. Alatise, N. Ha, B. Luo, C. Mai, L. Song, A. O. Wussah, S. Xiong, Y.-T. Yao, Q. Zhang, and L. D. Estes. (2025) Generalization enhancement strategies to enable cross-year cropland mapping with convolutional neural networks trained using historical samples. Remote Sensing 17:474.
Wang, J., Konar, M., Baylis, K., Estes, L, Hadunka, P., Xiong, S., Caylor, K. (2023) Potential impacts of transportation infrastructure improvements to maize and cassava supply chains in Zambia. Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability 3, 045006.
Cecil, M., Chilenga, A., Chisanga, C., Gatti, N., Krell, N., Vergopolan, N., Baylis, K., Caylor, K., Evans, T., Konar, M., Sheffield, J. & Estes, L. (2023) How much control do smallholder maize farmers have over yield? Field Crops Research, 301, 109014.
Yang, F., Jiang, X., Ziegler, A.D., Estes, L.D., Wu, J., Chen, A., Ciais, P., Wu, J. & Zeng, Z. (2023). Improved fine-scale tropical forest cover mapping for Southeast Asia using Planet-NICFI and Sentinel-1 imagery. Journal of Remote Sensing, 3, 0064.
Trivedi, M.B., Marshall, M., Estes, L., de Bie, C. a. J.M., Chang, L. & Nelson, A. (2023). Cropland mapping in tropical smallholder systems with seasonally stratified Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 spectral and textural features. Remote Sensing, 15, 3014.
Gatti, N., Cecil, M., Baylis, K., Estes, L., Blekking, J., Heckelei, T., Vergopolan, N. & Evans, T. (2023). Is closing the agricultural yield gap a “risky” endeavor? Agricultural Systems, 208, 103657.
Song, L. & Estes, L. (2023) itsdm: Isolation forest-based presence-only species distribution modelling and explanation in r. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 14, 831–840.
Song, L., Estes, A.B. & Estes, L.D. (2023). A super-ensemble approach to map land cover types with high resolution over data-sparse African savanna landscapes. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 116, 103152.
Xiong, S., Baltezar, P., Crowley, M.A., Cecil, M., Crema, S.C., Baldwin, E., Cardille, J.A. & Estes, L. (2022). Probabilistic tracking of annual cropland changes over large, complex agricultural landscapes using Google Earth Engine. Remote Sensing, 14, 4896.
Estes, L.D., Ye, S., Song, L., Luo, B., Eastman, J.R., Meng, Z., Zhang, Q., McRitchie, D., Debats, S.R., Muhando, J., Amukoa, A.H., Kaloo, B.W., Makuru, J., Mbatia, B.K., Muasa, I.M., Mucha, J., Mugami, A.M., Mugami, J.M., Muinde, F.W., Mwawaza, F.M., Ochieng, J., Oduol, C.J., Oduor, P., Wanjiku, T., Wanyoike, J.G., Avery, R.B. & Caylor, K.K. (2022). High resolution, annual maps of field boundaries for smallholder-dominated croplands at national scales. Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence, 4, 744863.
Crawford, C., Estes, L., Searchinger, T.D., Wilcove, D. (2021). Consequences of underexplored variation in biodiversity indices used for land‐use prioritization. Ecological Applications. https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2396.
Vergopolan, N., Xiong, , S., Estes, L., Wanders, N., Chaney, N.W., Wood, E. F., Konar, M., Caylor, K., Beck, H.E., Gatti, N., Evans, T., Sheffield, J. (2021). Field-scale soil moisture bridges the spatial-scale gap between drought monitoring and agricultural yields. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 25(4), 1827-1847.
Schmitt-Harsh, M., Waldman, K., Estes, L., Evans, T. (2020). Understanding social and environmental determinants of piecework labor in smallholder agricultural systems. Applied Geography 121.
Davis, K.F., Koo, H.I., Dell’Angelo, J., D’Odorico, P., Estes, L., Kehoe, L.J., Kharratzadeh, M., Kuemmerle, T., Machava, D., Rodrigues Pais, A.J., Ribeiro, N., Rulli, M.C., Tatlhego, M. (2020). Tropical forest loss enhanced by large-scale land acquisitions. Nature Geoscience 13(7), 482-488.
Liu, X., Huang, Y., Xu, X., Li, X., Li, X., Ciais, P., Lin, P., Gong, K., Ziegler, A., Chen, A., Gong, P., Chen, J., Hu, G., Chen, Y., Wang, S., Wu, Q., Huang, K., Estes, L., Zeng, Z. (2020). High-spatiotemporal-resolution mapping of global urban change from 1985 to 2015. Nature Sustainability, 1-7.
Elmes, A., Alemohammad, H., Avery, R., Caylor, K., Eastman, R., Fishgold, L., Friedl, M. A., Jain, M., Kohli, D., Laso Bayas, J.C., Lunga, D., McCarty, J.L., Pontius Jr, R.G., Reinmann, A.B., Rogan, J., Song, L., Stoynova, H., Ye, S., Yi, Z., Estes, L. (2020). Accounting for training data error in machine learning applied to Earth observations. Remote Sensing, 12, 1034.
Gago, J., Estrany, J., Estes, L., Fernie, A.R., Alorda, B., Brotman, Y., Flexas, J., Escalona J.M., Medrano, H. (2020). Nano and Micro Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs): A New Grand Challenge for Precision Agriculture? Current Protocols in Plant Biology, 5, e20103.
Mohammed, I., Marshall, M., de Bie, K., Estes, L., Nelson, A. (2020). A blended census and multiscale remote sensing approach to probabilistic cropland mapping in complex landscapes. ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing 161, 233-245.
He, X., Estes, L., Konar, M., Tian, D., Anghileri, D., Baylis, K., Evans, T.P., Sheffield, J. (2019). Integrated approaches to understanding and reducing drought impact on food security across scales. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 40, 43-54.
Jackson, N.D., Konar, M., Debaere, P., Estes, L. (2019). Probabilistic global maps of crop-specific areas from 1961 to 2014. Environmental Research Letters 14 (9), 094023.
Giroux, S.A., Kouper, I., Estes, L.D., Schumacher, J., Waldman, K., Greenshields, J.T., Dickinson, S.L., Caylor, K.K., Tom P Evans, T.P. (2019). A high-frequency mobile phone data collection approach for research in social-environmental systems: Applications in climate variability and food security in sub-Saharan Africa. Environmental Modelling & Software 119, 57-69.
Waldman, K, Vergopolan, N., Estes, L.D., Attari, S.Z., Sheffield, J., Caylor, K., and Evans, T. (2019). Cognitive biases about climate variability in smallholder farming systems in Zambia. Weather, Climate, and Society. doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-18-0050.1.
Estes, L.D., Chen, P., Debats, S., Evans. T., Ferreira, F., Kuemmerle, T., Ragazzo, G., Sheffield, J., Wolf, A., and Caylor, K. (2018). A large-area, spatially continuous assessment of land cover map error and its impact on downstream analyses. Global Change Biology 24, 322-337.
Estes, L.D., Elsen, P.R., Treuer, T., Ahmed, L., Caylor, K.K., Chang, J., Choi, J., and Ellis, E. (2018). The spatial and temporal domains of modern ecology. Nature Ecology and Evolution 2 (5), 819-826.
Manfreda, S., McCabe, M., Miller, P., Lucas, R., Madrigal, V., Mallinis, G., Ben Dor, E., Helman, D., Estes, L.D., Ciraolo, G., Müllerová, J., Tauro, F., Isabel De Lima, M., De Lima, J.L.M.P., Frances, F., Caylor, K., Kohv, M., Maltese, A., Perks, M., Ruiz-PÃlrez, G., Su, Z., Vico, G., and Toth, B. (2018). On the Use of Unmanned Aerial Systems for Environmental Monitoring. Remote Sensing 10 (4), 641.
Tauro, F., Selker, J., van de Giesen, N., Abrate, T., Uijlenhoet, R., Porri, M., Manfreda, S., Caylor, K., Moramarco, T., Benveniste, J., Ciraolo, G., Estes, L.D., Domeneghetti, A., Perks, M.T., Corbari, C., Rabiei, E., Ravazzani, G., Bogena, H., Harfouche, A., Brocca, L., Maltese, A., Wickert, A., Tarpanelli, A., Good, S., Manuel Lopez Alcala, J., Petroselli, A., Cudennec, C., Blume, T., Hut, R. and Grimaldia, S. (2018). Measurements and Observations in the XXI century (MOXXI): innovation and multidisciplinarity to sense the hydrological cycle. Hydrological Sciences Journal 63 (2), 169-196.
Zeng, Z., Estes, L.D., L., Ziegler, A., Chen, A., Searchinger, S., Hua, F., Guan, K., Jintrawet, A., and Wood, E. (2018). Unexpected highland cropland expansion and forest loss in Southeast Asia in the 21st century. Nature Geosciences, 11 (8), 556-562. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0166-9.
Zhao, Y., Vergopolan, N., Baylis, K., Blekking, J., Evans, T., Caylor, K, Giroux, S., Sheffield, J., and Estes, L.D. (2018). Comparing empirical and survey-based yield forecasts in a dryland agro-ecosystem. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 262, 147-156. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.06.024.
Kehoe, L., Romero-Muñoz, A., Estes, L.D., Kreft, H., Polaina, E., and Kuemmerle, T. (2017). Biodiversity at risk due to future cropland expansion and intensification. Nature Ecology and Evolution 1 (8), 1129-1135.
Zeng, Z., Piao, Z., Li, L. Z. X., Zhou, L., Ciais, P.,Wang, T., Li., Y., Lian, X.,Wood, E.F., Friedlingstein, P., Mao, J., Estes, L.D., Myneni, R., Peng., S., Shi, X., Seneviratne, S., and Wang, Y. (2017). Climate mitigation from vegetation biophysical feedbacks during the past three decades. Nature Climate Change 7, 432-436.
Estes, L.D., Searchinger, T., Spiegel, M., Tian, D., Sichinga, S., Mwale, M., Kehoe, L., Kuemmerle, T., Berven, A., Chaney. N., Sheffield, J., Wood, E., and Caylor, K. (2016). Reconciling agriculture, carbon, and biodiversity in a savanna transformation frontier. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 371 (1703), 20150316.
Mastrorillo, M., Licker, R., Bohra-Mishra, P., Fagiolo, G., Estes, L.D., and Oppenheimer, M. (2016). The influence of climate variability on internal migration flows in South Africa. Global Environmental Change 39, 155-169.
Debats, S., Luo, D., Estes, L.D., Fuchs, T., and Caylor, K. (2016). A generalized computer vision approach to mapping crop fields in heterogeneous agricultural landscapes. Remote Sensing of Environment 179, 210-221.
Estes, L.D., McRitchie, D., Choi, J., Debats, S., Evans, T., Guthe, W., Luo, D., Ragazzo, G., Zempleni,R., Caylor, K. (2016). A platform for crowdsourcing the creation of representative, accurate landcover maps. Environmental Modelling and Software 80 (C), 41-53.
Mastrorillo, M., Licker, R., Bohra-Mishra, P., Fagiolo, G., Estes, L.D., and Oppenheimer, M. (2016). The influence of climate variability on internal migration flows in South Africa. Global Environmental Change 39, 155-169.
Sweeney, S., Ruseva, T., Estes, L.D., Evans, T. (2015). Mapping cropland in smallholder-dominated savannas: integrating remote sensing techniques and probabilistic modeling. Remote Sensing 7 (11), 15295-15317.
Searchinger, T.*, Estes, L.D.*, Thornton, P., Notenbaert, A., Beringer, T., Rubenstein, D., Heimlich, R., Herrero, M. (2015). High carbon and biodiversity costs from converting Africa’s wet savannahs to cropland. Nature Climate Change 5, 481-486. (*joint lead authors).
Estes, L.D., Searchinger, T., Spiegel, M., Tian, D., Sichinga, S., Mwale, M., Kehoe, L., Kuemmerle, T., Berven, A., Chaney. N., Sheffield, J., Wood, E., Caylor, K. Reconciling agriculture, carbon, and biodiversity in a savanna transformation frontier. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 371 (1703), 20150316.
Estes, L.D., Bradley, B.A., Holness, S., Green, J.M., Oppenheimer, M., Paroz, L., Schulze, R., Tadross, M., Turner, W.R., Wilcove, D.S. (2014). Using changes in agricultural utility to quantify future climate-induced risk to conservation. Conservation Biology 28, 427-437. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12205.
Estes, L.D., Chaney, N., Herrera-Estrada, J., Caylor, K.K., Sheffield, J., Wood, E.F. (2014). Changing water availability during the African maize growing season, 1979-2010. Environmental Research Letters 9, 075005.
Estes, L.D., Bradley, B.A., Oppenheimer, M., Ruane, A., Schulze, R., Tadross, M., Turner, W.R., and Wilcove, D.S. (2013). Projected climate impacts to South African maize and wheat production in 2055: A comparison of empirical and mechanistic modeling approaches. Global Change Biology 19, 3762-3774.
Tingley, M.W., Estes, L.D., Wilcove, D.S. (2013). Climate change must not blow conservation off course. Nature 7462, 271-272.
Estes, L.D., Bradley, B.A., Beukes, H., Hole. D.G., Lau, M., Oppenheimer, M., Schulze, R., Tadross, M., Turner, W. Comparing mechanistic and empirical model projections of crop suitability and productivity: Implications for projecting ecological change. (2013). Global Ecology and Biogeography 22, 1007-1018.
Bradley, B.A., Estes, L.D., Hole, D.G., Holness, S., Oppenheimer, M., Schulze, R., Turner, W.R., and Wilcove, D.S. (2012). Predicting how adaptation to climate change could affect ecological conservation: secondary impacts of shifting agricultural suitability. Diversity and Distributions 18 (5), 425-437. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2011.00875.x.
Faria, P.J., Kavembe, G.D., Jung’a, J.O., Kimwele, C.N., Estes, L.D., Reillo, P.R., Mwangi, A.G., and Bruford, M.W. (2011). The use of non-invasive molecular techniques to confirm the presence of mountain bongo Tragelaphus eurycerus isaaci populations in Kenya and preliminary inference of their genetic variation. Conservation Genetics 12, 745-751.
Estes, L.D., Mwangi, A.G., Reillo, P.R., and Shugart, H.H. (2011). Predictive distribution modeling of a rare antelope using enhanced remote sensing and multiple validation techniques. Animal Conservation 14, 521-532.
Turner, W., Bradley, B., Estes, L., Hole, D., Oppenheimer, M., and Wilcove, D. (2010). Climate Change: Will Nature survive the human response? Conservation Letters 3, 304‐312.
Estes, L.D., Reillo, P.R., Mwangi, A.G., Okin, G.S., and Shugart, H.H. (2010). Remote sensing of structural complexity indices for habitat and species distribution modeling. Remote Sensing of Environment 114 (4), 792-804.
Estes, L.D., Okin, G.S., Mwangi, A.G., and Shugart, H.H. (2008). Habitat selection by a rare forest antelope: A multi-scale approach combining field data and imagery from three sensors. Remote Sensing of Environment 112, 2033-2050.

Working Papers

Muhawenayo, G., C. Robinson, S. Khanal, Z. Fang, I. Corley, A. Wollam, T. Gao, L. Strnad, R. Avery, L. Estes, A. M. Tárano, N. Jacobs, and H. Kerner. (2026) PRUE: A practical recipe for field boundary segmentation at scale. Accepted at CVPR 2026 (IEEE/CVF Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition).
Cecil, M., N. Krell, A. Chilenga, J. Gitonga, P. Hadunka, A. Zimmer, A. Wolf, T. Evans, K. Caylor, and L. Estes. (2024) Leveraging ground sensor networks to evaluate satellite-based land surface phenology in smallholder farming systems. SSRN. DOI:10.2139/ssrn.4880011.
Estes, L. D., A. Wussah, M. Asipunu, M. Gathigi, P. Kovačič, J. Muhando, B. V. Yeboah, F. K. Addai, E. S. Akakpo, M. K. Allotey, P. Amkoya, E. Amponsem, K. D. Donkoh, N. Ha, E. Heltzel, C. Juma, R. Mdawida, A. Miroyo, J. Mucha, J. Mugami, F. Mwawaza, D. A. Nyarko, P. Oduor, K. N. Ohemeng, S. I. D. Segbefia, T. Tumbula, F. Wambua, G. H. Xeflide, S. Ye, and F. Yeboah. (2024) A region-wide, multi-year set of crop field boundary labels for Africa. arXiv:2412.18483.
Khallaghi, S., Abedi, R., Ali, H.A., Alemohammad, H., Asipunu, M.D., Alatise, I., Ha, H., Luo, B. Mai, C. Song, L., Wussah, A., Xiong, S. Yao, Y. Zhang, Q., Estes. L.D. (2024) Generalization enhancement strategies to enable cross-year cropland mapping with convolutional neural networks trained using historical samples. arXiv:2408.06467.
Song, L., A. Frazier, C. L. Crawford, A. B. Estes, and L. Estes. (2024) Optimizing future cropland allocation in a biodiverse savanna by integrating agricultural benefits and ecological costs. OSF. DOI:10.31219/osf.io/4xnwb.
Song, L., Frazier, A., Estes, A.B. & Estes, L.D. (2024) Landscape connectivity informs critical linkage zones for the conservation of African savanna elephant (Loxodonta africana) in Tanzania. Open Science Foundation, 10.31219/osf.io/wmg97.
Wussah, A., Asipunu, M., Gathigi, M., Kovačič, P., Muhando, J., Addai, F., Akakpo, E.S., Allotey, M., Amkoya, P., Amponsem, E., Dadon, K.D., Gyan, V., Harrison, X.G., Heltzel, E., Juma, C., Mdawida, R., Miroyo, A., Mucha, J., Mugami, J., Mwawaza, F., Nyarko, D., Oduor, P., Ohemeng, K., Segbea, S.I.D., Tumbula, T., Wambua, F., Yeboah, F., Estes, L.D. (2024). A region-wide, multi-year set of crop field boundary labels for Africa. Dataset on Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11060871.
Khallaghi, S., Eastman, J.R. & Estes, L.D. (2023) A review of technical factors to consider when designing neural networks for semantic segmentation of Earth Observation imagery. arXiv:2308.09221
Debats, S., Estes, L.D., Thompson, D., & Caylor, K. (2017) Integrating active learning and crowdsourcing into large-scale supervised land cover mapping algorithms. PeerJ Preprint, 5:e3004v1

Book Chapters

McDermid, S.P., Ruane, A., Hudson, N.I., Rosenzweig, C., Morales, M.D., Agalawatte, P., Ahmad, S., Ahuja, L.R., Amien, I., Anapalli, S.S., Anothai, J., Asseng, S., Biggs, J., Bert, F., Bertuzzi, P., Bhatia, V.S., Bindi, M., Broad, I., Cammarano, D., Carretero, R., Chattha, A.A., Chung, U., Debats, S., Deligios, P., De Sanctis, G., Dhliwayo, T., Dumont, B., Estes, L.D., et al. (2015) The AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP): Methods and Protocols. In Hillel, D., and C. Rosenzweig (Eds.), ICP Series on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation, Vol. 4., Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project Integrated Crop and Economic Assessments, Part 1. (UK: Imperial College Press).
Estes, L.D., and Olson, D. (2004) Southern Rift montane forest-grassland mosaic. In The Terrestrial Ecoregions of Africa and Madagascar: A Conservation Assessment. N. D. Burgess, J. D’Amico Hales, E. Underwood, E. Dinerstein, and I. Itoua, eds. Washington, DC: Island Press.
Bingham, M, and Estes, L.D. (2004) Itigi-Sumbu thicket. In The Terrestrial Ecoregions of Africa and Madagascar: A Conservation Assessment. N. D. Burgess, J. D’Amico Hales, E. Underwood, E. Dinerstein, D. Olson, and I. Itoua, eds. Washington, DC: Island Press.
Estes, L.D. and Greyling, L. (2004) Zambezian and mopane woodlands. In The Terrestrial Ecoregions of Africa and Madagascar: A Conservation Assessment. N. D. Burgess, J. D’Amico Hales, E. Underwood, E. Dinerstein, D. Olson, and I. Itoua, eds. Washington, D.C.: Island Press.

Popular Writing

Estes, L. and Treuer, T. (2018). “Extracting and analyzing the scales of ecological data.” Nature Ecology and Evolution Community“, April 3, 2018.
Estes, L. and Searchinger, T. (2015). “Why smart agricultural development is needed in Africa’s savannas”. The Conversation, October 7, 2015.
Searchinger, T. and Estes, L.D. “Wasting the savanna”. The Washington Post, May 8, 2015.